Meat Trade News Daily
July 29, 2010

The U.S. beef-cow herd on July 1 was the smallest in at least 37 years as farmers remained wary of beef demand during the economic recovery after losing money in the past two years.

The beef-breeding herd totaled 31.7 million head as the month began, down 1.6 percent from 32.2 million a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a semiannual report. That marked the fewest cows for the date since at least 1973, said Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri in Columbia. Six analysts in a Bloomberg News survey expected a 1.4 percent drop, on average.

Cattle producers may make about $51.53 per cow this year, after losses in 2009 and 2008 because of high feed costs and declining beef demand, said Erica Rosa, an economist at the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. Uncertainty about economic recovery may be keeping ranchers from expanding herds, she said.

“Overall, cow-calf producers continue to reduce herd numbers, rather than expand by retaining heifers,” Rosa said by e-mail. “Although calf and feeder-cattle prices are higher than 2009, input/production costs still remain high and there is still quite a bit of uncertainty currently and about the future.”

The overall U.S. beef and dairy herd totaled 100.8 million head at the start of July, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier, according to today’s USDA report. That also marked the smallest size for July since at least 1973, Missouri’s Plain said. The USDA’s estimate matched analysts’ expectations before the report.

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